Name: Group Odds
Brand: DEPLOYR
Price: 100 USD
Availability: PreOrder

Picture this

Who it is for

Tomás Herrera plays five-a-side every Tuesday in Valparaíso, and his group chat spends all week arguing about whether Nico will really finish the Santiago marathon under four hours. With Group Odds he opens a market inside the Telegram group, everyone takes a side with play chips or a few capped dollars, and three named friends settle it by posting Nico's race result as evidence. The argument becomes a game with a fair ending instead of a fight.

Two ways to own it

What you get

Base$100

Yours in 2 to 3 days

The group member app: Telegram mini app and web link, market feed per group, market builder with cap, close time, criteria and panel, play chips or capped USDC positions, panel settlement with evidence and a dispute window, the group ledger with receipts, and the member profile with plans.

You choose: accent color
You choose: default stake cap and play chip amount
You choose: evidence types allowed

Customfrom $1,200

Built around you

Reshape it entirely: new features, your flows, your brand end to end, integrations you need. We scope it with you.

Everything in Base
Custom features and design
Priority build

Why it is new

What exists today, and what this does differently

Why own your own

Group chat prediction markets already exist: Telegram bots for private group markets, Polymarket bots like OkBet, FAFO, StakeSocial on XMTP and play money apps like Bettie. What is new here is the settlement design for people who know each other: a named three person panel chosen when the market opens, who must attach evidence before a result counts, with a dispute window, hard stake caps per person and play money as the default.

Closest things out there

PredictionMarketsBot (private markets inside a Telegram group), FAFO (markets from group chat claims, demo funds), StakeSocial (XMTP group betting), Bettie (play money leagues). None found with a named evidence panel as the resolution method.

Checked with web searches in October 2026. A search is not proof that nothing similar exists, and the market moves fast, so we recheck before every build.

What it unlocks

The human in it

Friends already bet on each other's lives in the chat; this makes it small, fair and settled by people everyone trusts.

The Regatta Board

Races Group Odds can enter

3 live races fit this app. Each one says why, with its prize and countdown. The rule on existing code is on the race page.

Grant roundBaseBase Builder GrantsFundingNot announcedRolling, apply any timeWhy it fits. Consumer social apps with small onchain stakes fit Base's builder focus; check current terms.56 other apps can enter tooSee the race Grant roundSolanaSolana Foundation GrantsFundingNot announcedRolling, apply any timeWhy it fits. Consumer apps on Solana are a stated interest; check current terms and local rules on prediction markets.26 other apps can enter tooSee the race HackathonSolanaColosseum EternalPrizeNot announcedRolling, apply any timeWhy it fits. Consumer track entries are judged on new work; check current terms and the existing code rule.13 other apps can enter tooSee the race

See every race on the board

What you own

The whole app, not a starter kit.

A complete group chat prediction market you own: friends open small capped markets on real life inside Telegram, named panels settle them with evidence, and your console runs plans, group rules, growth and the bot.

Base price · $100

The user app, complete

Every buyer gets the same finished app. Basic branding and copy changes come through a quick form.

Illustrated home with first-run onboardingHome

Three step welcome that explains caps, the panel and play chips, then the member's next market to settle or join.

Group market feedMarkets

Open, closing and settled markets in the group, each with the pool, the split and the named panel.

Capped positionsMarkets

Take yes or no with play chips or capped USDC; the cap is shown before you confirm.

Market builder with live chat previewOpen

Question, yes condition, close time, three panelists and the cap, previewed as the card the group will see.

Refusal of markets about people's health or safetyOpen

Plain rules stop markets that would hurt someone, with a short reason.

Panel settlement with evidenceSettle

Propose a result with a photo or link, a second panelist confirms, then a dispute window.

Three playable settlementsSettle

A clean result, a disputed result that flips after new evidence, and a void that refunds everyone.

Group ledger and receiptsLedger

Every stake, payout and refund with escrow hashes and the evidence hash, plus who called it right.

Locked features by planOpen

USDC mode, unlimited markets and season leaderboards unlock by plan.

Plans, settled card, permissions and visionMe

Plan upgrade with simulated USDC checkout, share card, invite and the bot's hard limits.

Open the full app demo

Add-on

Owner console

Your admin side: revenue, paywall editor, users, rules and the agent log.

Revenue dashboard and payoutsRevenue

MRR, settlement fee income, monthly chart and incoming USDC payments.

Live paywall editorRevenue

Rename tiers, set prices and choose what each unlocks; the member app updates instantly.

Group rulesRules

Stake cap, play chip default, dispute window, evidence types, settlement fee and money mode by region.

Bot log with failures and adaptationsAgent

Rate limits, broken evidence links and refused markets, plus monthly running costs.

Roadmap with build requestsRoadmap

v2 and v3 scoped add-ons you can request from DEPLOYR.

Top-up

Growth and referrals

Referral and growth mechanics, switched on when you are ready to grow.

Settled card loop and group sourcesGrowth

Settled cards, admin invites and season leaderboards by week.

The money path, built in

How it earns for you

Groups play free with chips. Groups that want capped USDC mode, unlimited markets and season leaderboards pay a small monthly plan, and organizers running several groups pay for League. An optional settlement fee on USDC pools goes to the owner.

PickupFreePlay chips, up to three open markets per group, panel settlement with evidence.

Regular$3 per month per groupCapped USDC mode, unlimited markets, season leaderboards and the evidence archive.

League$12 per monthSeveral groups under one organizer, custom caps, exports and a shared panel pool.

Optional settlement fee of 0 to 2 percent of USDC pools (default 1 percent), paid to your wallet and shown on every payout. Play chip markets never pay a fee.

Prices are yours to set. Illustrative, not a promise of income.

Growth loops, built in

How it spreads

Settled cards posted back to the group with evidence and who called it
Friends in other groups ask an admin to add the bot; no outreach to strangers
Season leaderboards that reset monthly and bring people back
League organizers bring several groups at once

Roadmap · build the next phase with us

Where it goes next

v1 included

The group market

Telegram bot and mini app
Market builder with panel and cap
Chips and capped USDC positions
Panel settlement, evidence and disputes
Plans, paywall editor and payouts

Included

Seasons and calibration

Monthly seasons with leaderboards
Calibration scores per member
WhatsApp and Discord bots

Add-on from $450

Clubs and classrooms

League dashboards for organizers
Shared panel pools across groups
Classroom mode with play chips only

Add-on from $900

The pitch, ready for investors and grant reviewers

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

Your 2 minute demo script

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

Make it entirely yours

Your brand, caps, chip amounts, chain choice and integrations such as WhatsApp or Discord bots, custom evidence types or a league site on your own domain are scoped and priced together.

Custom from $1,200

BLUEPRINT

Why it matters and how it really works

The recipe (how it is built, the data, costs, risks, build order, the pitch and the demo script) is unlocked when your app is paid in full.

The need

Friend groups argue about real life all the time: will he finish the marathon, will the barbecue survive the rain, will she actually move to Lisbon. Public prediction markets do not list these, and informal bets end in arguments about who won and who still owes money.

What exists and what is new

This largely exists. Telegram bots already run private markets inside a group, Polymarket bots bring public markets into chats, and play money apps run friend leagues. Group Odds is an incremental take focused on fair endings: a named panel of three members is chosen when the market opens, a result only counts when a panelist attaches evidence, other panelists confirm, anyone can dispute within a window, stakes are capped per person, and play chips are the default. Research verdict: exists, low novelty.

The data it runs on

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

1.The mission

Turn the arguments friends already have into small, fair games with an ending everyone can see and accept.

2.Why people can't resist it

The panel names Every market shows the three friends who will settle it. People play more fairly when they know who is judging.

Evidence or it did not happen A result needs a photo, link or file attached and a second panelist to confirm. The evidence stays pinned to the market.

The settled card When a market closes, a card posts back to the group with the result, the evidence and who called it right.

3.How it works for real

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

4.Pricing

Cost per use: unlocked when your app is paid in full.

Pickup Free

Play chips only, up to three open markets per group, panel settlement with evidence.

Regular $3 per month per group

Capped USDC mode, unlimited markets, season leaderboards and an evidence archive.

League $12 per month

Several groups under one organizer, custom caps, exports and a shared panel pool.

5.Growth loop

Every settled market posts a card back into the group with the evidence and who called it. Friends in other groups see it and ask for the bot. Group admins invite the bot; there is no outreach to strangers.

6.Risks and guardrails

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

7.Build order

Unlocked when your app is paid in full

8.Where this is going

Now
Friend groups settle their running arguments with small, capped markets and a panel everyone named.
Next
Season leaderboards, groups that share panelists, and calibrated records that show who in the group sees the future most clearly.
Later
Clubs, classrooms and teams use the same format for honest forecasts about their own plans, with play chips only.
The world it builds
Small communities get a fair, friendly way to put a number on what they believe and to agree on what actually happened.

Costs and tools are estimates at the time of writing. General information only, not legal or financial advice.

OWNER PLAYBOOK

Own it, then chart your voyage

Nine routes from one vessel. Tap a port to open its chart.

Why own Group Odds

Every group chat already runs informal bets on real life, and most of them end in an argument about who won. Owning Group Odds means you run the fair version: small capped markets inside the chat, play chips by default, and a named panel of friends who must show evidence before anyone is paid. Groups play free, and the ones that want more pay a few dollars a month. Prediction market rules differ by country, so you check yours before you ever turn on money mode.

What’s stopping you?

“Is this gambling, and is it legal where I live?”

With money it can be, and rules differ a lot by country and state. That is why play chips are the default and USDC mode stays off until you have checked local law. Many owners run chips only for a long time and earn from plans for features, not from stakes.

“Will friends fall out over a market?”

The panel is named before anyone takes a side, a result needs evidence and a second panelist, and anyone can dispute within a day. Caps keep stakes small. Markets about someone's health, safety or private life are refused.

“Will people actually pay for this?”

Most groups will play free forever, and that is fine: they are your growth. The groups that run a season, want a leaderboard or want capped USDC pay $3 a month. Start with your own groups and see which features they ask for.

“Will Telegram ban the bot?”

Bots that spam get banned. Group Odds only posts when a market opens, closes or settles, only in groups that added it, and never messages strangers. Follow Telegram's bot rules and keep it that way.